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COPX Max Pain

Live max pain strike, pain curve, pin probability, and dealer alignment for COPX. Identifies the strike where option holders collectively lose the most money at expiration - a magnet for expiration-day price action.

Max Pain
$84
Price
$86.02
Distance
2.4% above

COPX Pain Curve

COPX Max Pain - Live Analysis

COPX is currently trading at $86.02, with the max pain strike at $84 - a distance of 2.4% above. This means COPX would need to fall toward $84 for option holders to collectively lose the most money at the next expiration - conditions that, if pinned, would benefit dealers and option sellers.

Why max pain matters for COPX: options dealers collectively hold the short side of trillions in notional options exposure. As expiration approaches, their delta-hedging activity tends to push price toward the strike where they have the least payout obligation - the max pain strike. This is not a guarantee, but a probabilistic tendency that's strongest when COPX has high open interest concentrated near the max pain level and dealer gamma is positive.

Volatility & flow context: COPX ATM implied volatility is 40.8% - this drives the expected move that defines whether max pain is realistically reachable.

FlashAlpha computes COPX max pain from live options data across all expirations for 6,000+ US equities and ETFs. The pain curve above shows total option holder loss at each candidate settlement price; the minimum is the max pain strike. Sign up free to unlock the full pain curve and pin probability, or use the Max Pain API to pull COPX max pain data programmatically.

Frequently Asked Questions - COPX Max Pain

What is COPX's max pain today?

COPX's max pain strike is currently $84, 2.4% above from spot. Max pain is the strike price where total option holder intrinsic value is minimized at expiration - the strike at which dealers and option sellers collectively lose the least money. Many traders use it as a magnet for expiration-day price action.

Is COPX max pain a reliable price target?

Max pain is a probabilistic tendency, not a guarantee. It works best when (1) pin probability is above 60, (2) dealer alignment is converging (max pain near gamma flip and between walls), (3) gamma regime is positive, and (4) there's no major catalyst before expiration. For COPX these conditions can be checked above using the dealer alignment card.

How is COPX max pain calculated?

For each candidate settlement price S, you sum the intrinsic value across all open call and put contracts: Pain(S) = sum of max(K_put - S, 0) * OI_put + sum of max(S - K_call, 0) * OI_call. The strike that minimises this total is max pain. FlashAlpha computes this live across all COPX expirations and surfaces it via the Max Pain API.

What's the difference between max pain and gamma flip?

Max pain is based on open interest and minimises total option payouts at expiration. Gamma flip is based on OI weighted by gamma and the spot price - it marks where dealer hedging behavior changes from supportive (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma). When COPX's max pain and gamma flip converge, the pin signal is strongest because both forces point to the same level.

Related Reading

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Compare COPX Max Pain With

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What is Max Pain?

Max pain is the strike price where the total intrinsic value of all open options (calls and puts) is minimized at expiration. At this strike, the most options expire worthless and dealers/option sellers keep the most premium.

The theory: dealers' delta-hedging activity creates real buying and selling pressure that tends to push the underlying toward the strike where they have the least payout obligation. This effect is strongest near expiration when gamma is highest.

Reading the Pain Curve

  • Sharp V-shape: Concentrated OI, strong pin expected. Good for iron condors centered at max pain.
  • Flat curve: Dispersed OI across many strikes, weak pin. Max pain is less predictive.
  • Asymmetric curve: One side steeper. Put-heavy = downside pinning pressure; call-heavy = upside resistance.
  • Converging dealer alignment: Max pain near gamma flip, between walls = highest-conviction setup.

More COPX Analysis

Full COPX Analysis

IV, GEX, dealer positioning, vol surface, options flow
COPX Gamma Exposure

GEX by strike, call/put walls, gamma flip
COPX Vol Surface

3D implied volatility heatmap
COPX Implied Volatility

ATM IV, IV percentile, IV vs realized vol