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CMG Max Pain

Live max pain strike, pain curve, pin probability, and dealer alignment for CMG. Identifies the strike where option holders collectively lose the most money at expiration - a magnet for expiration-day price action.

Price
$31.98
Regime
negative gamma

CMG Pain Curve

CMG Max Pain - Live Analysis

This page shows real-time max pain analysis for CMG, updated every 15 seconds during market hours.

Why max pain matters for CMG: options dealers collectively hold the short side of trillions in notional options exposure. As expiration approaches, their delta-hedging activity tends to push price toward the strike where they have the least payout obligation - the max pain strike. This is not a guarantee, but a probabilistic tendency that's strongest when CMG has high open interest concentrated near the max pain level and dealer gamma is positive.

Volatility & flow context: CMG ATM implied volatility is 85.0% - this drives the expected move that defines whether max pain is realistically reachable.

FlashAlpha computes CMG max pain from live options data across all expirations for 6,000+ US equities and ETFs. The pain curve above shows total option holder loss at each candidate settlement price; the minimum is the max pain strike. Sign up free to unlock the full pain curve and pin probability, or use the Max Pain API to pull CMG max pain data programmatically.

Frequently Asked Questions - CMG Max Pain

What is CMG's max pain today?

Max pain is the strike price where total option holder intrinsic value is minimized at expiration - the strike at which dealers and option sellers collectively lose the least money. Many traders use it as a magnet for expiration-day price action.

Is CMG max pain a reliable price target?

Max pain is a probabilistic tendency, not a guarantee. It works best when (1) pin probability is above 60, (2) dealer alignment is converging (max pain near gamma flip and between walls), (3) gamma regime is positive, and (4) there's no major catalyst before expiration. For CMG these conditions can be checked above using the dealer alignment card.

How is CMG max pain calculated?

For each candidate settlement price K, you sum the intrinsic value across all open call and put contracts: Pain(K) = sum of max(K - K_put, 0) * OI_put + sum of max(K_call - K, 0) * OI_call. The strike that minimises this total is max pain. FlashAlpha computes this live across all CMG expirations and surfaces it via the Max Pain API.

What's the difference between max pain and gamma flip?

Max pain is based on open interest and minimises total option payouts at expiration. Gamma flip is based on OI weighted by gamma and the spot price - it marks where dealer hedging behavior changes from supportive (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma). When CMG's max pain and gamma flip converge, the pin signal is strongest because both forces point to the same level.

Related Reading

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Compare CMG Max Pain With

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What is Max Pain?

Max pain is the strike price where the total intrinsic value of all open options (calls and puts) is minimized at expiration. At this strike, the most options expire worthless and dealers/option sellers keep the most premium.

The theory: dealers' delta-hedging activity creates real buying and selling pressure that tends to push the underlying toward the strike where they have the least payout obligation. This effect is strongest near expiration when gamma is highest.

Reading the Pain Curve

  • Sharp V-shape: Concentrated OI, strong pin expected. Good for iron condors centered at max pain.
  • Flat curve: Dispersed OI across many strikes, weak pin. Max pain is less predictive.
  • Asymmetric curve: One side steeper. Put-heavy = downside pinning pressure; call-heavy = upside resistance.
  • Converging dealer alignment: Max pain near gamma flip, between walls = highest-conviction setup.

More CMG Analysis

Full CMG Analysis

IV, GEX, dealer positioning, vol surface, options flow
CMG Gamma Exposure

GEX by strike, call/put walls, gamma flip
CMG Vol Surface

3D implied volatility heatmap