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UB Futures Max Pain

Live max pain strike, pain curve, pin probability, and dealer alignment for UB (Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond) futures. Computed on the UB options-on-futures chain, this identifies the OI-weighted settlement strike where option holders collectively lose the most money at expiration - a magnet for expiration-day price action.

Max Pain
112
Price
110.33
Distance
1.5% below
Regime
negative gamma

UB Futures Pain Curve

UB Futures Max Pain - Live Analysis

UB is currently trading at 110.33, with the max pain strike at 112 - a distance of 1.5% below. This means UB would need to rally toward 112 for option holders to collectively lose the most money at the next options-on-futures expiration - conditions that, if pinned, would benefit dealers and option sellers.

Why max pain matters for UB: options dealers collectively hold the short side of large notional options exposure on the UB future. As expiration approaches, their delta-hedging activity tends to push price toward the strike where they have the least payout obligation - the max pain strike. This is not a guarantee, but a probabilistic tendency that's strongest when UB has high open interest concentrated near the max pain level and dealer gamma is positive. Because UB is computed on its own options-on-futures chain (not SPY/SPX relabeled), the levels are quoted in UB index points using the CME multiplier.

Dealer alignment context: UB's gamma flip is at 111.53 while max pain sits at 112. These levels are converging (within 1%), creating a strong magnet effect where both max pain gravity and dealer hedging point in the same direction. This is the highest-conviction pin setup.

Volatility & flow context: UB ATM implied volatility is 10.9% - this drives the expected move that defines whether max pain is realistically reachable.

FlashAlpha computes UB max pain from live options-on-futures data across all expirations, priced with the Black-76 model on the UB future. The pain curve above shows total option holder loss at each candidate settlement price; the minimum is the max pain strike. Sign up free to unlock the full pain curve and pin probability, or use the Max Pain API to pull UB max pain data programmatically.

Frequently Asked Questions - UB Futures Max Pain

What is UB futures max pain today?

UB's max pain strike is currently 112, 1.5% below from spot. Max pain is the OI-weighted settlement strike where total option holder intrinsic value is minimized at expiration - the strike at which dealers and option sellers collectively lose the least money. For UB it is computed on the Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond options-on-futures chain (not SPY/SPX relabeled). Many traders use it as a magnet for expiration-day price action.

Is UB max pain a reliable price target?

Max pain is a probabilistic tendency, not a guarantee. It works best when (1) pin probability is above 60, (2) dealer alignment is converging (max pain near gamma flip and between walls), (3) gamma regime is positive, and (4) there's no major catalyst before expiration. Because UB trades nearly 24 hours on CME Globex, positioning can shift overnight. For UB these conditions can be checked above using the dealer alignment card.

How is UB max pain calculated?

For each candidate settlement price S, you sum the intrinsic value across all open call and put contracts on the UB future: Pain(S) = sum of max(K_put - S, 0) * OI_put + sum of max(S - K_call, 0) * OI_call. The OI-weighted strike that minimises this total is max pain. FlashAlpha computes this live across all UB options-on-futures expirations and surfaces it via the Max Pain API.

What's the difference between max pain and gamma flip?

Max pain is based on open interest and minimises total option payouts at expiration. Gamma flip is based on OI weighted by gamma and the spot price - it marks where dealer hedging behavior changes from supportive (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma). For UB, dollar gamma uses the CME index-point multiplier rather than the 100x equity multiplier. When UB's max pain and gamma flip converge, the pin signal is strongest because both forces point to the same level.

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What is Max Pain?

Max pain is the strike price where the total intrinsic value of all open options (calls and puts) is minimized at expiration. At this strike, the most options expire worthless and dealers/option sellers keep the most premium. For UB it is the OI-weighted settlement level on the Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond options-on-futures chain.

The theory: dealers' delta-hedging activity creates real buying and selling pressure that tends to push the underlying toward the strike where they have the least payout obligation. This effect is strongest near expiration when gamma is highest.

Reading the Pain Curve

  • Sharp V-shape: Concentrated OI, strong pin expected. Good for iron condors centered at max pain.
  • Flat curve: Dispersed OI across many strikes, weak pin. Max pain is less predictive.
  • Asymmetric curve: One side steeper. Put-heavy = downside pinning pressure; call-heavy = upside resistance.
  • Converging dealer alignment: Max pain near gamma flip, between walls = highest-conviction setup.

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