Directional VRP
The side-by-side decomposition of VRP into put-wing and call-wing premium.
A decomposition of the Volatility Risk Premium into its put-side and call-side components using 25-delta wing IVs and semi-deviation realised vol.
upside_vrp = call_wing_iv_25d − upside_rv_20d
Semi-deviation RV is computed only from down-moves (downside_rv) or up-moves (upside_rv) over the 20d window.
- Positive downside_vrp: put wings are richer than realised down-move vol. Classic short-put edge.
- Negative downside_vrp: realised down-moves exceeded put wing IV — stress regime. Short puts bleed.
- upside_vrp differs from downside_vrp: asymmetric wing pricing. One side is richer than the other.
API Reference
Why Directional VRP Matters for Trading
Directional VRP splits the risk premium by direction. If downside_vrp is fat but upside_vrp is thin, short puts are the edge and short calls aren't. The split tells you which side to sell.
- What it measures
- Put-wing and call-wing IV measured against downside- and upside-only realised vol, so each leg of the VRP is isolated.
- What it signals
- Which wing of the smile carries the tradeable premium.
- Why we measure it
- Aggregate VRP smears the put and call sides together. Decomposing by direction surfaces one-sided setups that raw VRP hides.
- Who uses it
- Systematic short-vol funds, put-spread sellers, call-spread sellers, dispersion desks. Alpha tier.
How to read Directional VRP
- Put wings rich, call wings fair
- Short put spreads win
- Avoid short calls — no edge
- Classic stress-regime residual premium
- Realised drawdowns exceeding put IV
- Short puts lose money
- Long-put hedges work
- Sustained danger-zone regime
- Both sides rich
- Short strangles or iron condors
- Classic harvest regime
- Size by aggregate VRP
Rules of thumb
- Check both sides before sizing. A 15-vol downside VRP with a 2-vol upside VRP is fundamentally a one-sided trade, not a strangle trade.
- Asymmetric VRP signals skew regime. Steep skew = fat downside VRP, thin upside VRP.
- Use with harvest score. Harvest score aggregates; directional VRP tells you how to express.
- Semi-deviation is noisy on short windows. The 20d window is standard; shorter windows become unreliable quickly.
- Alpha tier only. Requires wing IV fitting and semi-deviation computation — not exposed on free/basic tiers.
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